Russia Wants No Nukes on Korean Penninsula, U.S. Threatening to Use Nukes on Korean Penninsula

Nicholas Favret, Open Source North Korean Intelligence Analyst, BAH

North Korea – United States Intelligence Summary

30 Oct – 5 Nov 2006

Russia Believes DPRK should be a Nuclear Free Zone

5 Oct 2006

Itar-Tass (Beijing, China) — Russia has recently stated that the DPRK should be a nuclear-free zone. This statement came from Vice-premier Alexander Zhukov.

Source: http://www.tass.ru/eng/level2.html?NewsID=10956915&PageNum=0 (Reliability: 6)

Analysis: Russia continues to publicly make stances which align with Western thoughts. Russia, as a traditional ally to the DPRK has shown more neutral DPRK tendencies in the public realm, in the UN and within the 6 party talks.

(Analytic Confidence: 6)

U.S. Bolstering Forces in Asia, Prepping for Fast Attack of DPRK Nuclear Facilities

03 Nov 2006

The Washington Times (Washington, DC) — U.S. defense officials have stated that the U.S. is bolstering defenses (capability) in the Asian region, and is also stepped up planning for attacks against the DPRK. The U.S. indicated it would use whatever weaponry necessary to defend South Korea and Japan, including the potential use of nuclear weapons.

Source: http://www.washtimes.com/national/20061103-122702-4895r.htm/ (Reliability: 7)

Analysis: The primary target currently outlined by the United States is the Yongbyon nuclear processing facility (as shown above in photo which is courtesy of Google Earth). This facility is vital to the DPRK for its ability to process plutonium. The United States has a large and proven arsenal of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, which would annihilate DPRK military capability if used.

Comment: The United States continues to publicly try to bully the DPRK into submitting to their wishes. The world knows that South Korea would be completed flattened if the U.S. engaged the DPRK forces, thus making a strike by the U.S. on North Korean soil unlikely.

(Analytic Confidence: 8)

U.S. rallying world against North Korea

Nicholas Favret, Open Source North Korean Intelligence Analyst, BAH

23 Oct, 2006

Imperialist U.S. forcing North Korean partners against the DPRK

Executive Summary:

In light of recent homeland defense actions taken by the DPRK, the United States has applied significant pressures to North Korean allies and trading partners, causing some countries to apply war-like measures against the DPRK. Specifically, China, Japan, Australia, Russia, and South Korea, have all been misguided by the U.S. to apply ranging pressures against North Korea. It is highly likely the United States will succeed in getting participation and execution from the countries (referenced above) in supporting (and enacting) the U.S. written policy sanctions being pushed by the United Nations (UN), within the coming 60 days.

Discussion:

China: It has been reported that China is building a fence along the border (highlighted in Figure 1)it shares with the DPRK.[1] It has been reported that China has begun inspecting shipments bound for North Korea, which signals that they have begun succoming to aggressive U.S. policies against the DPRK.

Japan: Japan has deployed ships and air support to monitor North Korean shipping.[2] Japan has banned North Korean imports and is stopping North Korean ships in its harbors.[3] The United States has supported Japan in enacting extreme measures against the DPRK.

Australia: Australia is considering banning North Korean ships and the Australia navy may board North Korean flag vessels to search cargo.[4] Australia is an important ally of the U.S.

Russia: On 22 October 2006, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov met with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice to discuss the implementation of international sanctions against the DPRK.[5] Russia has been a long standing trading partner with North Korea, and this new development is concerning to North Korean foreign relations.

South Korea: On 19 October 2006, Condoleeza Rice met with South Korean leadership to discuss how to harm the DPRK.[6] South Korean policy (formally a peaceful Sunshine policy) has been swayed to the point where South Korea has: halted subsidies to the North Korean Diamond Mountain project, been considering new operating methods at the Kaesong Industrial complex, halted material shipments to the DPRK, and may halt future food aid. The U.S. has taken forced a traditional ally to act against what is best for the Korean penninsula.

Comments:

The United States continue to strive to force (through economic, political, and military might) countries in the Asian region to apply untraditional pressure on the DPRK. The U.S. achieved surprising political victory in persuading regional countries to ban North Korean ships, inspect DPRK cargo, and further limit trade with the DPRK. All of these U.S. fueled actions and persuasions can fairly be seen as an act against the people and leaders of the DPRK.

Source Reliability: 7

Analytic Confidence: 6

For questions or comments, please contact the author:

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(1) http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1549298-2,00.html

(2) http://www.swissinfo.org/eng/international/ticker/detail/U_N_sanctions_North_Korea.html?siteSect=143&sid=7165651&cKey=1160907753000

(3) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6052320.stm

(4) http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/10/15/news/UN.php

(5) http://en.rian.ru/russia/20061022/55026703.html

(6) http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,222324,00.html?sPage=fnc.world/northkorea

BI-Signficant Regional pressure being levied on DPRK

China, Australia, Japan, and South Korea have all put significant economic pressure on the DPRK country, and the North Korean people via use of economic sanctions.

China has begun inspecting Cargo shipments headed for North Korea, which is a significant action by a country which has supported North Korean policy and government. The effect of this specific action will be slowdown in trade (specifically shipment speed) with North Korea, and thus could harm the DPRK economy.

Australia banned North Korean ships from their ports. This action severly hinders economic trade with the DPRK, and will directly harm North Korean people whose jobs are in support of Australian trade.

Japan recently banned North Korea ships from entering Japanese port and completely banned trade with the North. This is a major blow to the DPRK economy, as Japan represented $225.62 million worth of exports in 2001.

South Korea stopped shipment of food aid to North Korea, with reported food levels at a third of the level at this point in 2005.

In total these regional actions by former DPRK trading partners will stifle the DPRK economy.

Analytic Confidence: 8.5

Sources:
http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2006/10/16/china_inspects_north_korean_cargo/
http://www.parapundit.com/archives/001054.html

INTSUM - China Wargaming for EMP Scenario

Overview:
The Chinese military began engaging (on 13 October 2006) in military exercises under an electromagnetic warfare scenario. These exercises were codenamed the "Queshan-2006" exercises. This exercise began occuring soon after the DPRK tested (October 8th) an underground nuclear weapon.

Related Chinese Military News:
Recently, China has increased troop strength along the DPRK border. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) also conducted "long-range" exercises this past September, under similar electromagnetic scenarios created for the "Queshan-2006" exercise.

Effect:
China could be preparing for a nuclear scenario on the Asian continent. Although this action is not specifically damaging to the DPRK, it does hint that China is taking measures to be able to defend itself in the advent of regional warfare.

Analytic Confidence: 7.5

Sources:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/photo/2006-10/16/content_708867.htm
http://english.people.com.cn/200610/16/eng20061016_312182.html
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/photo/2006-10/16/content_708867_3.htm
http://www.teluguportal.net/modules/news/article.php?storyid=13679